Fixed income · India · Decision desk

India Bond Monitor

Yields as of 1–2 Oct 2026 · RBI decision Wed 7 Oct, 10:00 IST

What the curve, spreads and RBI outlook mean for your next bond decision, with every signal calculated from the numbers below.

RBI repo rate

5.25%

Neutral · on hold since Aug

10Y G-Sec yield

7.21%

+5 bp day · +23 bp month

AAA 10Y spread

56 bp

over G-Sec · 30 Sep

CPI inflation, Aug

4.82%

Jul 4.45% · food 5.95%

Today's read

Decision panel

Four signals worked out from the data. Green = supportive, amber = watch, red = risky. They are rule-based readings of the numbers, not advice.

What if yields move?

Pick a parallel shift in yields over the next 12 months. Returns = yield earned + price change (full repricing). Roll-down is ignored.

Breakeven = how many bp yields can rise before a year of yield income is wiped out by the price fall. Markets are pricing about 100 bp of RBI tightening over 12 months, so a breakeven near or below 100 bp leaves no cushion. Rows marked "est." use the middle of an indicative spread range, not a live quote. Credit shown at a 10-year tenor for comparison.

G-Sec yield curve

2 Oct 202612 months earlier

Only 1Y, 5Y, 10Y and 30Y were available. Backdrop: US 10Y near 5.30%, Brent about $100–107, rupee about 96 per US dollar, about ₹8 trillion of planned government borrowing to Mar 2027.

Corporate spreads over G-Sec

Indicative ranges in bp. The red marker is the AAA 10Y reading of 56 bp on 30 Sep.

Different dates. Ranges come from a June 2026 source when the G-Sec was near 6.9%; the marker is from 30 Sep. Use them for relative width, not today's quotes.

RBI policy watch

The MPC meets 5–7 Oct. A hike would be the first since Feb 2023.

5.50%

MSF (ceiling)

5.50%

Bank rate

5.25%

Repo rate

5.00%

SDF (floor)

What economists expect

Reuters poll, 61 economists, 7 Oct

35 expect +25 bp

26 other

Poll, 53 economists, December

29 expect another +25 bp

24 other

"Other" is every answer that is not a 25 bp hike; the source does not break it down. August: hold (fourth in a row).

Backdrop

CPI, Aug 2026	4.82%
CPI, Jul 2026	4.45%
Food inflation	5.95%
RBI GDP forecast	6.7%
Sensex / Nifty 50 (1 Oct)	71,909.70 / 22,421.95
India VIX · equities	14.45 · 8th weekly fall

Your portfolio

Upload an Excel or CSV of your bonds. Everything is calculated in your browser; the file is not uploaded or stored.

Drop a file here or choose one

.xlsx, .xls or .csv · columns: name, coupon, maturity, face, price (optional: frequency, rating). Enter the full (dirty) price including accrued interest.

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Example data. The bonds below are made up so you can see the layout. Upload your file to replace them.

Valuation date

What your portfolio is telling you

If yields move over 12 months

12-month outcome = one year of yield income + price change on today's value.

Where the rate risk sits

Weight by maturity

Weight by type

Holdings

How these numbers are worked out

Yield to maturity solves for the rate that discounts all coupons and the redemption to the price you entered. The price is treated as the full price, so no accrued interest is added. Coupon dates count back from maturity at the stated frequency (annual if blank). Modified duration = Macaulay duration ÷ (1 + yield ÷ frequency). DV01 is the rupee change for 1 bp. Shocks reprice every bond at its yield plus the shift. "vs curve" compares a bond's yield with the straight-line G-Sec curve (flat below 1 year), so it is a rough guide.

Sample CSV: